Conventional wisdom in baseball circles is that College pitchers are more of a known quantity while High School pitchers have a higher ceiling for success. The analysis done in a previous article showed historically you had nearly equal odds of drafting elite pitchers from the College level as the High School level. However, you had better odds of drafting atleast a good pitcher by drafting College pitchers.
What about position players? Future Hall of Famers Ken Griffey Jr., Chipper Jones, Alex Rodriguez, and Derek Jeter were all drafted out of High School. So were superstars Darryl Strawberry and Gary Sheffield. Does the conventional wisdom that High School position players have a higher ceiling apply to position players instead of pitchers? Let’s take a look.
Analysis
For this analysis, we looked at every position player drafted in the top ten of the First Year Player draft from 1980-1999. Players drafted after this time frame may have not had enough time to establish themselves and be judged with a grade. Only the top ten picks from each draft class were analyzed so that the judgment falls predominantly on “elite” prospects.
The career statistics for each player was analyzed and given a grade from A to F. The grades were based on the following criteria.
A – A regular star performer to future Hall of Famer.
B – A player with a number of solid to good years in the Major Leagues. A player with this grade may have had a few short years of great success or was an average player for a long time.
C – A player with several years of success in the Major Leagues, perhaps was atleast a starting player, but wouldn’t have been considered necessarily good.
D – A player that made it to the Major Leagues and may have played a few years, or for a number of years as a bench player, but ultimately had little to no significant success.
F – A player that failed to make the Major Leagues, or if they did make it, it was short lived without success.
With this kind of grading criteria, there is some subjectiveness to the analysis. Players such as Robin Ventura, Charles Johnson, Vernon Wells, Eric Chavez, Pat Burrell, Josh Hamilton, and Carlos Pena have approached stardom (or in some cases still could reach it). They certainly aren’t Hall of Famers, but do they get put into the same group as Joe Carter, Will Clark, Barry Larkin, and Todd Helton? Or are they more in the group represented by Shawon Dunston, J.D. Drew, B.J. Surhoff, Carl Everett and Jeff King? Certainly, judgment calls will be made. The hope is the subjective grading will not affect the overall analysis.
The drafted players and their grades are listed at the end of this article for reference.
Data
There were a total of 56 High School players drafted in this analysis. Their grades fall into the following distribution.
A: 9
B: 9
C: 12
D: 10
F: 16
There were a total of 54 College pitchers drafted in this analysis. Their grades fall into the following distribution.
A: 10
B: 11
C: 8
D: 15
F: 10
Comparison Analysis
It’s interesting that teams drafted position players nearly identically between High School and College players, 56 vs 54. It does suggest that teams do view College positions players equally to High School position players. In contrast, Major League teams drafted College pitchers over High School pitchers more than 2 to 1.
Similar to pitchers, a surprisingly high number of high draft picks could not achieve a reasonable level of success in the Major Leagues (received a grade of D or F). What’s more interesting, is an equal percentage (46%) of players from High School and College received a grade of a D or F. Or, another way to look at it is that an equal percentage of players (54%) amongst High School and College players were able to have some success at the Major League level. In contrast, in the previous analysis more High School pitchers received a D or F than College pitchers, 63% to 53%.
A fairly comparable rate of stars and solid players (grade of A or B) were drafted out of the High School and College, with only a slight edge to College players (32% to 39%). Virtually the same rate of stars (grade of A) were drafted from High School and College (16% vs 18%).
This is quite a contrast compared to pitchers. As discussed before, the odds of Major League success were significantly better for drafting College pitchers instead of High School pitchers. However, it appears to have little impact on the drafting of position players, as you appear to have a near identical rate of stars, solid players, and failures drafting from High School and College. The only major difference in the percentages is that more College players can atleast make the Majors and have some service time (grade of D and up), as more High School players received an F grade than College players, 29% to 19%.
Player Grades
The following are the players used in this analysis. Their year, draft position, whether they were a college or high school player, and their grade used in this analysis are listed. Note that players that were drafted as both a position player and pitcher were judged on their eventual career path. Players that may have been re-drafted, most notably Charles Johnson and J.D. Drew, were left in their original draft positions.
1980 – 1 – Darryl Strawberry – High School – A
1980 – 2 – Garry Harris – High School – F
1980 – 5 – Jeff Pyburn – College – F
1980 – 6 – Darnell Coles – High School – C
1980 – 7 – Jay Reid – High School – F
1980 – 8 – Cecil Espy – High School – D
1980 – 9 – Ross Jones – College – D
1980 – 10 – Kelly Gruber – High School – B
1981 – 2 – Joe Carter – College – A
1981 – 3 – Dick Schofield – High School – C
1981 – 4 – Terry Blocker – College – D
1981 – 6 – Kevin McReynolds – College – B
1981 – 8 – Bobby Meacham – College – D
1982 – 1 – Shawon Dunston – High School – B
1982 – 2 – Augie Schmidt – College – F
1982 – 6 – Spike Owen – College – C
1982 – 7 – Sam Khalifa – High School – D
1982 – 10 – John Morris – College – D
1983 – 2 – Kurt Stillwell – High School – C
1983 – 3 – Jeff Kunkel – College – D
1983 – 4 – Eddie Williams – High School – D
1983 – 8 – Robbie Wine – College – F
1983 – 9 – Matt Stark – High School – F
1984 – 1 – Shawn Abner – High School – D
1984 – 4 – Cory Snyder – College – C
1984 – 6 – Erik Pappas – High School – D
1984 – 8 – Jay Bell – High School – B
1984 – 9 – Alan Cockrell – College – F
1984 – 10 – Mark McGwire – College – A
1985 – 1 – B.J. Surhoff – College – B
1985 – 2 – Will Clark – College – A
1985 – 4 – Barry Larkin – College – A
1985 – 5 – Kurt Brown – High School – F
1985 – 6 – Barry Bonds – College – A
1985 – 8 – Pete Incaviglia – College – B
1985 – 10 – Chris Gwynn – College – D
1986 – 1 – Jeff King – College – B
1986 – 3 – Matt Williams – College – A
1986 – 6 – Gary Sheffield – High School – A
1986 – 8 – Patrick Lennon – High School – D
1986 – 9 – Derrick May – High School – C
1987 – 1 – Ken Griffey, Jr. – High School – A
1987 – 2 – Mark Merchant – High School – F
1987 – 10 – Kevin Garner – College – F
1988 – 2 – Mark Lewis – High School – C
1988 – 6 – Monty Fariss – College – D
1988 – 7 – Willie Ansley – High School – F
1988 – 9 – Ty Griffin – College – F
1988 – 10 – Robin Ventura – College – A
1989 – 2 – Tyler Houston – High School – C
1989 – 4 – Jeff Jackson – High School – F
1989 – 5 – Donald Harris – College – D
1989 – 6 – Paul Coleman – High School – F
1989 – 7 – Frank Thomas – College – A
1989 – 8 – Earl Cunningham – High School – F
1989 – 10 – Charles Johnson – High School – A
1990 – 1 – Chipper Jones – High School – A
1990 – 2 – Tony Clark – High School – B
1990 – 3 – Mike Lieberthal – High School – B
1990 – 6 – Marc Newfield – High School – D
1990 – 7 – Daniel Wilson – College – C
1990 – 8 – Timothy Costo – College – F
1990 – 10 – Carl Everett – High School – B
1991 – 2 – Mike Kelly – College – D
1991 – 3 – David McCarty – College – D
1991 – 4 – Dmitri Young – High School – B
1991 – 7 – Joseph Vitiello – College – D
1991 – 9 – Mark Smith – College – D
1992 – 1 – Phil Nevin – College – B
1992 – 4 – Jeffrey Hammonds – College – C
1992 – 5 – Chad Mottola – College – F
1992 – 6 – Derek Jeter – High School – A
1992 – 7 – Calvin Murray – College – D
1992 – 9 – Preston Wilson – High School – B
1992 – 10 – Michael Tucker – College – C
1993 – 1 – Alex Rodriguez – High School – A
1993 – 7 – Trot Nixon – High School – C
1993 – 9 – Matt Brunson – High School – F
1993 – 10 – Brooks Kieschnick – College – D
1994 – 2 – Ben Grieve – High School – C
1994 – 4 – Tony Williamson – College – F
1994 – 5 – Josh Booty – High School – F
1994 – 6 – McKay Christensen – High School – F
1994 – 8 – Todd Walker – College – C
1995 – 1 – Darin Erstad – College – B
1995 – 2 – Mark Davis – High School – D
1995 – 3 – Jose Cruz, Jr. – College – B
1995 – 6 – Jamie Jones – High School – F
1995 – 8 – Todd Helton – College – A
1995 – 9 – Geoff Jenkins – College – B
1995 – 10 – Chad Hermansen – High School – D
1996 – 2 – Travis Lee – College – C
1996 – 8 – Chad Green – College – F
1996 – 9 – Mark Kotsay – College – C
1996 – 10 – Eric Chavez – High School – A
1997 – 2 – J.D. Drew – College – B
1997 – 3 – Troy Glaus – College – A
1997 – 5 – Vernon Wells – High School – A
1997 – 8 – J.J. Davis – High School – F
1997 – 9 – Michael Cuddyer – High School – C
1998 – 1 – Pat Burrell – College – B
1998 – 3 – Corey Patterson – High School – C
1998 – 7 – Austin Kearns – High School – C
1998 – 8 – Felipe Lopez – High School – C
1998 – 9 – Sean Burroughs – High School – D
1998 – 10 – Carlos Pena – College – B
1999 – 1 – Josh Hamilton – High School – B
1999 – 3 – Eric Munson – College – D
1999 – 4 – Corey Myers – High School – F
1999 – 5 – B.J. Garbe – High School – F
Sources
Michael Salfino, “College Pitchers Offer Better Value”, WSJ
“First Year Player Draft”, MLB.com
“Baseball-Reference.com – Major League Baseball Statistics and History”, Baseball-Reference
