We are inundated by economic news; one has to ignore them to remain sane! We need to have real balance in life & firm belief in our abilities to overcome all challenges; after all they are the spice of life to add to its meaning & variety. At the end of the day, life is a journey to reflect upon the experiences & lessons learnt along the way!
Economic forecasts blare at us for attention. But they can confuse, even confound everyone with their contradictions. Economy is on the mend, not still out of the woods, doom & gloom forecasts another; all backed up with detailed analysis & conclusions to justify them! All can be convincing for those willing to believe them! But what are the realities? When so many permutations & combinations are involved depending on weather, politics in countries, psychotic leaders hoodwinking their people, self-interests above principles; what could in the end justify the forecasts?
The forecasts of course have some value; they vary in extremes, so a middle road can be travelled! Also, one can be prepared for the worst-case scenario of course, hoping that it might not happen! Again, one can find out own vulnerabilities & come to conclusions to suit our risk profiles.
The man in the street often bears the brunt of economic vicissitudes. Not only is he sold dreams by those who themselves do not understand the products very well, he has also to bear the brunt of others’ follies; like in the recent financial crisis where the government, meaning the man in the street, had to bail-out those too big to fail! Of course, some forecasts become true anyway; people are quick to highlight them & take credit while hiding others under the carpets!
Another, easy out for the pundits is by becoming moving targets, shifting their positions often; USD to Euro can change from 1.40 to 1.20 overnight due to some crisis! So the parameters change due to circumstances beyond their control, throwing all their previous calculations overboard!
So the bottom line is, we are ultimately responsible for our own decisions & have to stand our grounds despite the sweet talks & over-sell of products by those who will not take any blame! The forecasts also come with caveats that they are not responsible for any losses for decisions based on them!
Of course, these analyses can open our minds as to how the markets are supposed to work based on certain assumptions but the variables are too many to base our decisions on them. Economics is not an exact science like Physics or Chemistry with some recommending contrarian views based on many variables!
Rather than getting carried away, let us just stay rooted to the ground, making our decisions based on harsh realities that speculation does not pay; stay within limits, hard work based on sound principles will only reward us till the end. All others are illusory. We come alone to this world & leave likewise! We have to create our own luck & future!